Clinically Unsuspected Prion Disease Among Patients With Dementia Diagnoses in an Alzheimer's Disease Database.

BACKGROUND: Brain tissue analysis is necessary to confirm prion diseases. Clinically unsuspected cases may be identified through neuropathologic testing. METHODS: National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC) Minimum and Neuropathologic Data Set for 1984 to 2005 were reviewed. Eligible patients had dementia, underwent autopsy, had available neuropathologic data, belonged to a currently funded Alzheimer's Disease Center (ADC), and were coded as having an Alzheimer's disease clinical diagnosis or a nonprion disease etiology. For the eligible patients with neuropathology indicating prion disease, further clinical information, collected from the reporting ADC, determined whether prion disease was considered before autopsy. RESULTS: Of 6000 eligible patients in the NACC database, 7 (0.12%) were clinically unsuspected but autopsy-confirmed prion disease cases. CONCLUSION: The proportion of patients with dementia with clinically unrecognized but autopsy-confirmed prion disease was small. Besides confirming clinically suspected cases, neuropathology is useful to identify unsuspected clinically atypical cases of prion disease.

Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease among American Indians and Alaska Natives in the United States.

The occurrence of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) among American Indians and Alaska Natives in the United States was evaluated using national multiple cause-of-death data and medical information obtained from state health departments. Twelve CJD deaths were identified for 1981 through 2002, and the average annual age-adjusted death rate was 0.47 per million population. This rate was significantly lower than that for whites and similar to the rate for African Americans.

Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in unusually young patients who consumed venison.

BACKGROUND: Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) in humans and chronic wasting disease (CWD) in deer and elk occur in the United States. Recent reports of 3 unusually young patients with CJD who regularly consumed deer or elk meat created concern about the possible zoonotic transmission of CWD. OBJECTIVE: To examine the possible transmission of CWD to humans. PATIENTS: Three unusually young patients (aged 28, 28, and 30 years) with CJD in the United States during 1997-2000. METHODS: We reviewed medical records and interviewed family members and state wildlife and agriculture officials. Brain tissue samples were tested using histopathologic, immunohistochemical, immunoblot, or prion protein gene analyses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Presence or absence of established CJD risk factors, deer and elk hunting in CWD-endemic areas, and comparison of the evidence for the 3 patients with that of a zoonotic link between new variant CJD and bovine spongiform encephalopathy. RESULTS: None of the patients had established CJD risk factors or a history of travel to Europe. Two patients hunted game animals and 1 was a daughter of a hunter. Unlike patients with new variant CJD, the 3 patients did not have a unique neuropathologic manifestation, clinicopathologic homogeneity, uniformity in the codon 129 of the prion protein gene, or prion characteristics different from those of classic variants. CONCLUSIONS: Although the occurrence of 3 unusually young patients with CJD who consumed venison suggested a possible relationship with CWD, our follow-up investigation found no strong evidence for a causal link. Ongoing CJD surveillance remains important for continuing to assess the risk, if any, of CWD transmission to humans.

Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease after receipt of a previously unimplicated brand of dura mater graft.

BACKGROUND: Iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) transmission via dura mater grafts has been reported in many countries. In September 1998, a 39-year-old Colorado woman was reported as having suspected CJD after receiving a dura mater graft 6 years earlier. METHODS: An investigation was initiated to confirm the diagnosis of CJD and assess the possible source of CJD transmission. The authors determined the presence or absence of other known CJD risk factors, checked for epidemiologic evidence of possible CJD transmission via neurosurgical instruments, and evaluated the procedures used in the collection and processing of the graft, including whether the donor may have had CJD. RESULTS: The CJD diagnosis was confirmed in the dural graft recipient by neuropathologic and immunodiagnostic evaluation of the autopsy brain tissue. She had no history of receipt of cadaveric pituitary hormones or corneal grafts or of CJD in her family. The authors found no patients who underwent a neurosurgical procedure within 6 months before or 5 months after the patient's surgery in 1992 who had been diagnosed with CJD. The dura mater was obtained from a 57-year-old man with a history of dysarthria, ataxia, and behavioral changes of uncertain origin. The graft was commercially prepared by use of a process that included treatment with 0.1 N sodium hydroxide and avoided commingling of dura from different donors. CONCLUSIONS: The patient's age, absence of evidence for other sources of CJD, the latent period, and the report of an unexplained neurologic illness in the donor of the dura mater indicate that the graft was the most likely source of CJD in this patient.

Trends in infectious disease hospitalizations among American Indians and Alaska Natives.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to describe trends in hospitalizations associated with infectious diseases among American Indians and Alaska Natives. METHODS: Infectious disease hospitalizations and rates among American Indians and Alaska Natives from 1980 through 1994 were examined via Indian Health Service hospital discharge data and compared with published trends for the general US population. RESULTS: Annual hospitalization rates for infectious diseases among American Indians and Alaska Natives decreased by 31.0% between 1980 and 1994. Infectious disease hospitalizations accounted for 16.3% of all hospitalizations in 1980 and 21.2% in 1994, an increase of 30.1%. In 1994, the age-adjusted infectious disease hospitalization rate for American Indians and Alaska Natives was 1863 per 100,000 population, approximately 21% greater than that for the general US population. CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalization trends for infectious diseases show that there has been improvement in the health status of American Indians and Alaska Natives but also indicate that this population has a higher infectious disease burden than the general US population.

Iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease at the millennium.

The causes and geographic distribution of 267 cases of iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) are here updated at the millennium. Small numbers of still-occurring cases result from disease onsets after longer and longer incubation periods following infection by cadaveric human growth hormone or dura mater grafts manufactured and distributed before the mid-1980s. The proportion of recipients acquiring CJD from growth hormone varies from 0.3 to 4.4% in different countries, and acquisition from dura mater varies between 0.02 and 0.05% in Japan (where most cases occurred). Incubation periods can extend up to 30 years, and cerebellar onsets predominate in both hormone and graft recipients (in whom the site of graft placement had no effect on the clinical presentation). Homozygosity at codon 129 of the PRNP gene is over-represented in both forms of disease; it has no effect on the incubation period of graft recipients, but may promote shorter incubation periods in hormone cases. Knowledge about potential high-risk sources of contamination gained during the last quarter century, and the implementation of methods to circumvent them, should minimize the potential for iatrogenic contributions to the current spectrum of CJD.

The incidence of Kawasaki syndrome in West Coast health maintenance organizations.

BACKGROUND: Kawasaki syndrome (KS) causes an acute vasculitis of unknown etiology. It is a leading cause of acquired heart disease of children in Japan and the United States. METHODS: We examined the incidence of KS in a well-defined population group of children < or =6 years of age, using data collected through the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) project. The VSD database contains information on >1 million children enrolled in four West Coast health maintenance organizations (HMOs). RESULTS: During 1993 through 1996 a total of 234 physician-diagnosed KS patients were reported in the 4 HMOs; 152 (65.0%) were boys and 195 (83.3%) were <5 years of age. The incidence of KS among children <5 years of age in the HMOs ranged from 9.0 to 19.1 per 100,000 person years. KS incidence was higher among boys in 3 of the sites. In the 2 sites with the highest number of KS patients, a seasonal occurrence of KS in winter and early spring was observed. Overall 226 (96.6%) of the KS patients were reported to have been hospitalized; hospitalization rates for children <5 years of age ranged from 9.0 to 16.8 per 100,000 person years. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of KS in the HMOs was similar to that reported in other population-based studies in the United States and higher than estimates for Australia and several European countries.

Kawasaki syndrome hospitalizations among children in Hawaii and Connecticut.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the incidence and describe recent trends of Kawasaki syndrome (KS) in 2 different areas of the United States. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of Hawaii and Connecticut State KS hospital discharge records for children younger than 5 years. RESULTS: In Hawaii, 175 KS hospitalizations for children younger than 5 years were reported during 1994 through 1997; the annual hospitalization rate per 100,000 children was 47.7. The rate for Hawaiian children younger than 1 year (83.2) was greater than that for 1- to 4-year-old children (39.0), and most hospitalizations occurred prior to age 2 years (median age, 17 months). In Connecticut, 171 KS hospitalizations for children younger than 5 years were reported during 1993 through 1996; the annual hospitalization rate per 100,000 children was 18.8, and the median age at hospitalization was 28 months. For both states, most hospitalizations were for boys. Although no clear seasonality was apparent, monthly peaks occurred in some of the years from December through March. CONCLUSIONS: Kawasaki syndrome seems to remain an endemic disease in the United States. A high KS annual hospitalization rate was seen in Hawaii, especially in children younger than 1 year, whereas in Connecticut, the KS rate was more consistent with those previously reported in the continental United States. Arch Pediatr Adolesc Med. 2000;154:804-808

The impact of influenza epidemics on hospitalizations.

The traditional method for assessing the severity of influenza seasons is to estimate the associated increase (i.e., excess) in pneumonia and influenza (P&I) mortality. In this study, excess P&I hospitalizations were estimated from National Hospital Discharge Survey Data from 26 influenza seasons (1970-1995). The average seasonal rate of excess P&I hospitalization was 49 (range, 8-102) /100,000 persons, but average rates were twice as high during A(H3N2) influenza seasons as during A(H1N1)/B seasons. Persons aged <65 years had 57% of all influenza-related hospitalizations; however, the average seasonal risk for influenza-related P&I hospitalizations was much higher in the elderly than in persons aged <65 years. The 26 pairs of excess P&I hospitalization and mortality rates were linearly correlated. During the A(H3N2) influenza seasons after the 1968 pandemic, excess P&I hospitalizations declined among persons aged <65 years but not among the elderly. This suggests that influenza-related hospitalizations will increase disproportionately among younger persons in future pandemics.

Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in a recipient of a dura mater graft processed in the US: cause or coincidence?

Iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) has never been reported among recipients of dura mater grafts processed in the US. We recently investigated a report of such a case in a 72-year-old man with a typical clinical presentation of CJD. We found no evidence of CJD in either the 34-year-old donor or in other, proximal patients undergoing craniotomies. Although the graft may have caused the illness, sporadic CJD is a more likely explanation, with the graft being coincidental.

Kawasaki syndrome among American Indian and Alaska Native children, 1980 through 1995.

BACKGROUND: Kawasaki syndrome (KS) is a leading cause of acquired heart disease among US children, but the epidemiologic features of KS among American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) children have not been described. METHODS: We examined Indian Health Service computerized records of hospital discharges for AI/AN children <18 years of age with KS during 1980 through 1995. RESULTS: During 1980 through 1995, 85 AI/AN children were reported with a hospitalization for KS; 10 of the children had an additional KS hospitalization record within 5 months. The average annual KS hospitalization rate for children <5 years of age, based on first KS hospitalization only, was 4.3 cases per 100000 children; the rate for children age <1 year (n = 21) was 8.6 per 100000 and for children ages 1 to 4 years was 3.6 per 100000. The annual rates for children < 5 years of age ranged from 0 to 8.5 per 100000 children. KS hospitalizations for children peaked in January and February; 50.6% of the children were hospitalized during January through April. The overall median length of hospital stay was 4 days (range, 1 to 29 days); the median duration decreased from 8 days from 1980 through 1982 to 4 days from 1993 through 1995. CONCLUSIONS: The overall annual hospitalization rate of KS among AI/AN children <5 years of age was slightly lower than rates for several majority white populations in the United States. (4.6 to 15.2 cases per 100000) and much lower than rates for blacks and Asians/Pacific Islanders.

Reye's syndrome in the United States from 1981 through 1997.

BACKGROUND: Reye's syndrome is characterized by encephalopathy and fatty degeneration of the liver, usually after influenza or varicella. Beginning in 1980, warnings were issued about the use of salicylates in children with those viral infections because of the risk of Reye's syndrome. METHODS: To describe the pattern of Reye's syndrome in the United States, characteristics of the patients, and risk factors for poor outcomes, we analyzed national surveillance data collected from December 1980 through November 1997. The surveillance system is based on voluntary reporting with the use of a standard case-report form. RESULTS: From December 1980 through November 1997 (surveillance years 1981 through 1997), 1207 cases of Reye's syndrome were reported in patients less than 18 years of age. Among those for whom data on race and sex were available, 93 percent were white and 52 percent were girls. The number of reported cases of Reye's syndrome declined sharply after the association of Reye's syndrome with aspirin was reported. After a peak of 555 cases in children reported in 1980, there have been no more than 36 cases per year since 1987. Antecedent illnesses were reported in 93 percent of the children, and detectable blood salicylate levels in 82 percent. The overall case fatality rate was 31 percent. The case fatality rate was highest in children under five years of age (relative risk, 1.8; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.5 to 2.1) and in those with a serum ammonia level above 45 microg per deciliter (26 micromol per liter) (relative risk, 3.4; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.9 to 6.2). CONCLUSIONS: Since 1980, when the association between Reye's syndrome and the use of aspirin during varicella or influenza-like illness was first reported, there has been a sharp decline in the number of infants and children reported to have Reye's syndrome. Because Reye's syndrome is now very rare, any infant or child suspected of having this disorder should undergo extensive investigation to rule out the treatable inborn metabolic disorders that can mimic Reye's syndrome.

The Guillain-Barré syndrome and the 1992-1993 and 1993-1994 influenza vaccines.

BACKGROUND: The number of reports of influenza-vaccine-associated Guillain-Barré syndrome to the national Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System increased from 37 in 1992-1993 to 74 in 1993-1994, arousing concern about a possible increase in vaccine-associated risk. METHODS: Patients given a diagnosis of the Guillain-Barré syndrome in the 1992-1993 and 1993-1994 influenza-vaccination seasons were identified in the hospital-discharge data bases of four states. Vaccination histories were obtained by telephone interviews during 1995-1996 and were confirmed by the vaccine providers. Disease with an onset within six weeks after vaccination was defined as vaccine-associated. Vaccine coverage in the population was measured through a random-digit-dialing telephone survey. RESULTS: We interviewed 180 of 273 adults with the Guillain-Barré syndrome; 15 declined to participate, and the remaining 78 could not be contacted. The vaccine providers confirmed influenza vaccination in the six weeks before the onset of Guillain-Barré syndrome for 19 patients. The relative risk of the Guillain-Barré syndrome associated with vaccination, adjusted for age, sex, and vaccine season, was 1.7 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.0 to 2.8; P=0.04). The adjusted relative risks were 2.0 for the 1992-1993 season (95 percent confidence interval, 1.0 to 4.3) and 1.5 for the 1993-1994 season (95 percent confidence interval, 0.8 to 2.9). In 9 of the 19 vaccine-associated cases, the onset was in the second week after vaccination, all between day 9 and day 12. CONCLUSIONS: There was no increase in the risk of vaccine-associated Guillain-Barré syndrome from 1992-1993 to 1993-1994. For the two seasons combined, the adjusted relative risk of 1.7 suggests slightly more than one additional case of Guillain-Barré syndrome per million persons vaccinated against influenza.

Progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy in the United States, 1979-1994: increased mortality associated with HIV infection.

To examine trends in progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) mortality in the United States, we analyzed PML death rates and deaths for 1979 through 1994, using US multiple cause-of-death data. During the 16-year study period 3,894 PML deaths were reported. The age-adjusted death rate increased more than 20-fold, from less than 0.2 per million persons before 1984 to 3.3 per million persons in 1994. The increase was attributable to infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) which was recorded on 2,267 (89.0%) of 2.546 death records from 1991 through 1994. PML age-adjusted death rates increased abruptly for all males beginning in 1984 and for black females in 1990. Only a small increase was observed for white females. In 1994, PML was reported in 2.1% of white males who died with HIV-associated disease compared with 1.2% of white females and 1.0% of black males and females who died of similar causes. The epidemic of PML deaths is increasing in parallel with the AIDS epidemic. The increase in HIV-associated PML deaths, first noted among males, has also become apparent among females and probably reflects the increasing importance of drug use and heterosexual transmission of HIV. The reason for the higher prevalence of PML among white males with HIV infection is unknown.

Pandemic versus epidemic influenza mortality: a pattern of changing age distribution.

Almost all deaths related to current influenza epidemics occur among the elderly. However, mortality was greatest among the young during the 1918-1919 pandemic. This study compared the age distribution of influenza-related deaths in the United States during this century's three influenza A pandemics with that of the following epidemics. Half of influenza-related deaths during the 1968-1969 influenza A (H3N2) pandemic and large proportions of influenza-related deaths during the 1957-1958 influenza A (H2N2) and the 1918-1919 influenza A (H1N1) pandemics occurred among persons <65 years old. However, this group accounted for decrementally smaller proportions of deaths during the first decade following each pandemic. A model suggested that this mortality pattern may be explained by selective acquisition of protection against fatal illness among younger persons. The large proportion of influenza-related deaths during each pandemic and the following decade among persons <65 years old should be considered in planning for pandemics.

New variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease and bovine spongiform encephalopathy.

New variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) are invariably fatal, subacute degenerative diseases of the brain that are classified as transmissible spongiform encephalopathies. BSE was first diagnosed in 1986 as part of an ongoing epizootic in the United Kingdom that was amplified by the feeding of rendered bovine meat-and-bone meal to young calves. As of June 1997, a total of 17 cases of new variant CJD have been reported among residents of the United Kingdom, an increase of seven cases since March 1996, when concern was first expressed about the possible emergence of new variant CJD as a novel epidemic caused by the spread of BSE to humans. Accumulating experimental and epidemiologic data support this concern and have led the CDC to support the Food and Drug Administration's efforts to modify the protein content of ruminant feed in the United States as a prudent measure to protect the health of animals and the public.

Surveillance for chronic fatigue syndrome--four U.S. cities, September 1989 through August 1993.

PROBLEM/CONDITION: Although chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) has been recognized as a cause of morbidity in the United States, the etiology of CFS is unknown. In addition, information is incomplete concerning the clinical spectrum and prevalence of CFS in the United States. REPORTING PERIOD COVERED: This report summarizes CFS surveillance data collected in four U.S. cities from September 1989 through August 1993. DESCRIPTION OF SYSTEM: A physician-based surveillance system for CFS was established in four U.S. metropolitan areas: Atlanta, Georgia; Wichita, Kansas; Grand Rapids, Michigan; and Reno, Nevada. The objectives of this surveillance system were to collect descriptive epidemiologic information from patients who had unexplained chronic fatigue, estimate the prevalence and incidence of CFS in defined populations, and describe the clinical course of CFS. Patients aged > or = 18 years who had had unexplained, debilitating fatigue or chronic unwellness for at least 6 months were referred by their physicians to a designated health professional(s) in their area. Those patients who participated in the surveillance system a) were interviewed by the health professional(s); b) completed a self-administered questionnaire that included their demographic information, medical history, and responses to the Beck Depression Inventory, the Diagnostic Interview Schedule, and the Sickness Impact Profile; c) submitted blood and urine samples for laboratory testing; and d) agreed to a review of their medical records. On the basis of this information, patients were assigned to one of four groups: those whose illnesses met the criteria of the 1988 CFS case definition (Group I); those whose fatigue or symptoms did not meet the criteria for CFS (Group II); those who had had an identifiable psychological disorder before onset of fatigue (Group III); and those who had evidence of other medical conditions that could have caused fatigue (Group IV). Patients assigned to Group III were further evaluated to determine the group to which they would have been assigned had psychological illness not been present, the epidemiologic characteristics of the illness and the frequency of symptoms among patients were evaluated, and the prevalence and incidence of CFS were estimated for each of the areas. RESULTS: Of the 648 patients referred to the CFS surveillance system, 565 (87%) agreed to participate. Of these, 130 (23%) were assigned to Group I; 99 (18%), Group II; 235 (42%), Group III; and 101 (18%), Group IV. Of the 130 CFS patients, 125 (96%) were white and 111 (85%) were women. The mean age of CFS patients at the onset of illness was 30 years, and the mean duration of illness at the time of the interview was 6.7 years. Most (96%) CFS patients had completed high school, and 38% had graduated from college. The median annual household income/for CFS patients was $40,000. In the four cities, the age-, sex-, and race-adjusted prevalences of CFS for the 4-year surveillance period ranged from 4.0 to 8.7 per 100,000 population. The age-adjusted 4-year prevalences of CFS among white women ranged from 8.8 to 19.5 per 100,000 population. INTERPRETATION: The results of this surveillance system were similar to those in previously published reports of CFS. Additional studies should be directed toward determining whether the data collected in this surveillance system were subject to selection bias (e.g., education and income levels might have influenced usage of the health-care system, and the populations of these four surveillance sites might not be representative of the U.S. population). ACTIONS TAKEN: In February 1997, CDC began a large-scale, cross-sectional study at one surveillance site (Wichita) to describe more completely the magnitude and epidemiology of unexplained chronic fatigue and CFS.

Influenza surveillance--United States, 1992-93 and 1993-94.

PROBLEM/CONDITION: CDC conducts active surveillance annually from October through May on the emergence and spread of influenza virus variants and the impact of influenza-related morbidity and mortality. Influenza activity is also monitored throughout the year by passive surveillance. REPORTING PERIOD COVERED: This report summarizes U.S. influenza surveillance from October 1992 through May 1994. DESCRIPTION OF SYSTEM: Influenza surveillance comprises four components, three of which provide weekly data from October through May: a) state and territorial epidemiologists provide estimates of local influenza activity; b) approximately 140 sentinel physicians report their total number of patient visits and the number of cases of influenza-like illness; and c) approximately 70 collaborating laboratories of the World Health Organization (WHO) report weekly influenza virus isolations and submit selected influenza isolates to CDC for antigenic analysis. Throughout the year, vital statistics offices of 121 cities report deaths related to pneumonia and influenza (P&I), providing an index of the impact of influenza on mortality. RESULTS: Influenza B viruses predominated during the 1992-93 influenza season, but influenza A(H3N2) isolates increased and were associated with outbreaks in nursing homes at the end of the season. The increase in influenza A(H3N2) activity was associated with a rise in P&I-related mortality. Preseason outbreaks of influenza A(H3N2) virus were reported during August and September 1993 in Louisiana. In the past, preseason outbreaks of influenza have been associated with earlier than usual epidemic-level activity. During the 1993-94 influenza season, activity rose during November and December and peaked earlier than usual, during the last week of December and the first week of January; influenza A(H3N2) viruses predominated. INTERPRETATION: The change in predominance from influenza B to influenza A in the spring of 1993 emphasizes the importance of annual influenza surveillance. Although influenza vaccine is effective against both influenza A and B, the antiviral drugs amantadine and rimantadine are effective only against influenza A. Outbreaks during the summer of 1993 emphasize that influenza should be considered a possible cause of respiratory infections during summer and early autumn. ACTIONS TAKEN: Surveillance data were provided weekly throughout the influenza season to public health officials, WHO, and health-care providers.

The impact of influenza epidemics on mortality: introducing a severity index.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of recent influenza epidemics on mortality in the United States and to develop an index for comparing the severity of individual epidemics. METHODS: A cyclical regression model was applied to weekly national vital statistics from 1972 through 1992 to estimate excesses in pneumonia and influenza mortality and all-cause mortality for each influenza season. Each season was categorized on the basis of increments of 2000 pneumonia and influenza excess deaths, and each of these severity categories was correlated with a range of all-cause excess mortality. RESULTS: Each of the 20 influenza seasons studied was associated with an average of 5600 pneumonia and influenza excess deaths (range, 0-11,800) and 21,300 all-cause excess deaths (range, 0-47,200). Most influenza A(H3N2) seasons fell into severity categories 4 to 6 (23,000-45,000 all-cause excess deaths), whereas most A(H1N1) and B seasons were ranked in categories 1 to 3 (0-23,000 such deaths). CONCLUSIONS: From 1972 through 1992, influenza epidemics accounted for a total of 426,000 deaths in the United States, many times more than those associated with recent pandemics. The influenza epidemic severity index was useful for categorizing severity and provided improved seasonal estimates of the total number of influenza-related deaths.